Apparently, many people believe the Fed can manipulate the rate of interest willy-nilly. What they don’t realize is that the rate of interest is a market phenomenon that gives its participants correct information. Entrepreneurs, capitalists, homebuyers and consumers alike appraise the current rate of interest and determine if they desire to be borrowers, lenders, consumers, sellers etc. Without the correct information, they are as sailors lost at sea, without the necessary guide of a compass.
As you can see, when the Federal Reserve System screws around with interest rate, usually setting it artificially low, it tricks people into making incorrect decisions that waste scarce resources and cause marketplace distortions. And you wonder why our economy suffers from boom and bust cycles.
Did you know the market rate of interest is composed of three components that correspond to reality. I know—the political and financial establishment completely disregards reality—and Wall Street investors seem to like it that way.
Anyway, here are the three components.
1. Time Component
2. Risk Component
3. Inflation Premium
The time component gives people information on how to weigh the future against the present. If they prefer to delay consumption and save for the future, the rate of interest tends to fall. If they prefer immediate consumption at the expense of future savings, the rate tends to rise.
The risk component is just that—how risky a loan is. The more risk there is in lending— the higher the rate of interest. A safe loan tends to have a low or negligible rate of interest included in its final rate.
An inflation premium is included if lenders and borrowers expect prices to rise. The more they expect prices to increase—the higher the rate of interest. The final rate of interest includes all three components.
As you can see, Federal Reserve policy of lowering the rate of interest to practically 0% is absurd. As unbelievable as it might seem, Bernanke and company are in effect claiming that:
1. People no longer wish to consume anything today. They are delaying all consumption until sometime in the future. Fact: This is ridiculous. If people actually acted in this manner, the human race would perish.
2. There is no longer any risk in making loans to businesses and individuals. Fact: This is the height of absurdity. Our current crisis is the result of too much easy money resulting in excessive debts that many debtors can never repay.
3. Inflation is past history. Fact: Increases in the money supply is inflation. Price increases are the result of inflation. Of course, the establishment loves to confuse the issue by reversing cause and effect. Face it. We can expect rapidly increasing price in the not too-distant future—unless of course, the whole house of cards collapses.
One solution to our economics woes is to allow the rate of interest to increase to its natural level. This would wash away most of the mal-investments—resulting in producers satisfying the most urgent desires of productive citizens.
For an excellent and entertaining article about the time component of the rate of interest read the article Of Time and Marshmallows by J. Grayson Lilburne.
Robert A Meyer
The Libertarian Way